215. SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
Name: Konstantinos Kosmidis
Grad Year: 2016
The 'San Diego-Tijuana Earthquake Scenario' project aims to examine the impact that a probable major earthquake will have on the San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan region and define methods for mitigation. It is a bi-national effort between two cities that share the same geologic and tectonic environment but have different infrastructure. The project is divided into three working groups. The first group focused on specifically characterizing the probable earthquake hazard. Based on a previous scenario for the same area drafted in 1990, members of the Hazards working group selected a M6.9 earthquake rupturing on the Rose Canyon fault with directivity towards Tijuana. Based on this scenario event, a shakemap with various peak spectral accelerations was also developed, as well as a preliminary estimate for the various types of losses as a result of some secondary hazards derived from the earthquake shaking. The second working group is focused on assessing the building and infrastructure inventory. HAZUS, a multi-hazard loss estimation methodology developed by FEMA in the 1990's, will be used for this project. HAZUS combines geologic data and the latest building inventory to estimate a region's earthquake losses. The work consists of the classification of the building stock for various types of critical facilities, and the evaluation of the building inventory data, such as geospatial information, building type and design level, and other critical design parameters. These data are being collected from different existing databases, and will be imported into the HAZUS software. Examples of building types being investigated are essential facilities, unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs), bridges and critical infrastructure. The third working group is focused on the socioeconomic impact of the scenario earthquake. Based on the results obtained by the second working group, planning recommendations will be developed that minimize the impact of the scenario event on the community and improve the resiliency of our cities. The final outcome of this project will be a detailed report aimed at improving government and community awareness of the seismic risk in the San Diego-Tijuana region, thus influencing the development of seismic retrofit measures, mitigation policies and earthquake preparedness planning.
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